Thursday, November 30, 2006

Ignatieff Camp Needs 35% on First Ballot - Easter

Wayne Easter, a supporter of Michael Ignatieff, has thrown out a number: 35%

That's apparently the support Michael Ignatieff feels he needs on the first ballot in order to be seen as having momentum.

It will be very interesting to see what he will do if he doesn't get 35%.

UPDATE: Oh, wait. Actually, that's just Wayne Easter's personal opinion apparently. My bad.


At 11/30/2006 12:22 p.m., Blogger CuriosityCat said...

Macleans had Innovative Research Group poll the standings of the Big 4 contenders (1,495 Canadians between November 23 and 27, margin of error plus minus 2.5%).

Some snapshots:

Ignatieff had "relatively unimpressive showing" in answer to the question "is he the kind of leader who will protect the interests of people like me". Bob Rae and Dion came out on top (25% agree he is), Kennedy (21%) and Ignatieff only 17%. Bob Rae and Ignatieff had the same total of those who strongly disagreed or did not know (41% and 42% respectively).

"One striking finding for Mr Dion is that he is the least liked Liberal candidate among Bloc supporter. This no doubt relates to pas role as a federalist champion and his leadership on the Clarity Act." 66% of Bloc respondents disagreed that Dion would protect the interests of people like them (for Rae it was 54%, Kennedy 48% and Ignatieff 53%).

"The assumed leadership front-runner, Michael Ignatieff, only holds his own with current Liberal supporters and has little appeal with supporters of other parties and those currently undecided".

"Bob Rae also does well with current Liberal voters. He also polls very strongly amongst supporters of his former party, the NDP."

Only 31% of Liberals believe Ignatieff is the kind of leader to protect the interests of people like them (Rae: 51%, a sizeable 20% more than Ignatieff).

Amongst the NDP, only 11% think Ignatieff will protect their interests, while 39% thought Bob Rae would (28% more than Ignatieff).

A whopping 53% of NDP disagreed that Ignatieff was the kind of leader to protect the interests of people like them (Rae only 26%).

The news for Harper is not good either: just over 35% of voters say they are more comfortable with the idea of a Conservative majority now then they used to be (virtually the same number who voted Tory in January), while 49% are NOT more comfortable. That Harper pond just is not growing any bigger ...

At 11/30/2006 1:17 p.m., Blogger bigcitylib said...

Actually, I've read the 35% figure before in a number of newspapers. It seems to be "the conventional wisdom".

At 11/30/2006 2:23 p.m., Blogger CuriosityCat said...

Hot on the heels of the Macleans poll by Innovative, comes the Decima poll for CP, saying more Canadians believe Bob Rae is the one who should lead the Liberals, rather than Ignatieff:
"Canadian Press
Published: Thursday, November 30, 2006

MONTREAL (CP) - A new national poll suggests Canadians of every federalist party persuasion believe that Bob Rae is a more electable option as Liberal leader than top rival Michael Ignatieff.

The Nov. 24-26 Decima Research survey found that Rae's perceived winnability topped Ignatieff's by a significant margin in every region of the country except Quebec. More than 1,000 respondents were asked by Decima to picture themselves as delegates to this weekend's leadership convention in Montreal

In a final-ballot showdown between front-runner Ignatieff and Rae, they were asked who they felt had the best chance to win for the Liberals in the next election.

Under this scenario, 37 per cent chose Rae and 25 per cent picked Ignatieff.

The results of the poll, which was distributed to The Canadian Press, are considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Decima CEO Bruce Anderson says the poll suggests Rae's winnability factor is perceived to be higher among all age groups, men and women, urban and rural voters, and everywhere but Quebec - where Ignatieff would get 36 per cent support and Rae 25 per cent.
Ignatieff also led in the poll among self-identified Bloc Quebecois voters.
© The Canadian Press 2006"


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