Quebeckers have been doing some surprising voting lately, haven't they?

(First things first: 5 seats to over 40? Congrats to the ADQ, obviously.)

The Conservative beachhead in 2006. The ADQ surge in 2007. I think it's safe to say that Quebec politics is undergoing a massive sea-change at this point. However, I would hesitate to call this a right-wing surge. I think it rather reflects a desire on the part of Quebeckers to move past the federalist-separatist paradigm of the past 30 years. The nation resolution and Mario Dumont's ambivalence towards the separatist/federalist debate have certainly helped to shape this. I think Dumont really tapped into those who agree with his "autonomist" vision of Quebec - he voted "Yes" in the 1995 referendum, but he has no taste for another referendum as long as Quebec gets what it wants from the federation. Dumont represents someone the federal government can work with - not as staunch an ally as Charest, perhaps, but certainly a better result for federalism than a Boisclair victory.

Still, it's important to keep in mind that the three parties are in a statistical dead heat looking purely at the popular vote. Under a more proportional electoral system, the three parties would be almost dead-even in seat counts, as well.