Friday, December 09, 2005

Third day in a row

Liberals - 41
Conservatives - 26
NDP - 18
Bloc - 11
Greens - 4

For the third day in a row, SES' daily tracking poll has the Liberals up and the Conservatives down. The first shock was when the Liberals hit 40, to the Tories' 28. The next day, the Tories dropped to 26. Today, the Liberals go up to 41.

All within the margin of error of course, but I'm noticing a trend - after all, two points make a line, three make a pattern.

Add to that the fact that both the government and the Liberals typically do worse in the polls than they do on election day, and we could be looking at a majority government. I mean, with those numbers, the most seats the Tories could expect to win would be 80, if they were lucky. As for the Bloc, it needs to stay hovering around 14 in order to make any substantial gains; a drop or increase of one point for the Bloc is huge compared to the other parties, since they only run in Quebec, hence why their national numbers are always so low but they always do so well. The fact that they're down to 11 - and have been for a few days - is really a bad sign for them, and a good sign for the Liberals. The Liberals' primary goal in Quebec this time would realistically be keeping the 21 seats they have, but if they could actually take some Bloc seats back, they would definitely be in majority government territory. A swing of only 20 seats across the whole country from the opposition to the Liberals is, after all, all it would take, and with these numbers, they could very well pull it off.


At 12/09/2005 6:18 p.m., Blogger Jason Cherniak said...

I also notice that NDP support is staying high. If that start to bleed red, I see a sure-fire majority.

At 12/09/2005 7:15 p.m., Blogger Clear Grit said...

As long as red support stays high, orange will stay where it is. If it starts looking like blue could win, orange will bleed red.

Either way, it would be disastrous for the Conservatives to have the Liberal AND NDP support high - it would mean they get picked off by the NDP in BC and Saskatchewan and the Liberals in Ontario.

At 12/10/2005 12:17 p.m., Blogger mAc Chaos said...

Long live the Liberal party!


Aw, I was hoping Stephen Harper would win. Although I've always assumed that the Liberals would win, at least a minority government. It's funny that they'll get voted right back into power.

At 12/10/2005 5:02 p.m., Blogger RON said...

Liberals suddenly at 39% (-2) in the SES Nightly Tracking Poll. Can't wait for the next numbers. What does it mean? Is it a blip or the beginning of a trend down? Time will tell.

This Income Trust "scandal" could have legs. Mr. Martin better take action and quickly.


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