Sunday, February 05, 2006

The Marriage Vote

A website which follows the voting intentions of MPs on same-sex marriage (and was extremely close in predicting the last vote) has 156 in favour of gay marriage, 141 against, and 11 unknowns. That would seem to corroborate what I said earlier - equal rights in Canada are safe for now.

If you know the voting intentions of the following 11 MPs, you can help that site have a complete documentation:

Andre Arthur, Independent, Portneuf PQ
Jean-Pierre Blackburn, Conservative, Jonquiere--Alma PQ
Steven Blaney, Conservative, Levis--Bellechasse PQ
Blaine Calkins, Conservative, Wetaskiwin AB
Luc Harvey, Conservative, Louis-Hebert PQ
Tina Keeper, Liberal, Churchill MB
Gary Merasty, Liberal, Churchill River SK
Rick Norlock, Conservative, Northumberland--Quinte West ON
Daniel Petit, Conservative, Charelsbourg PQ
Paul Steckle, Liberal, Huron--Bruce ON
Mike Wallace, Conservative, Burlington ON


At 2/06/2006 1:05 p.m., Blogger Miles Lunn said...

Andre Arthur has already said he would abstain.

Tina Keeper and Gary Meratsy I believe are for SSM, while Paul Steckle being the staunch social conservative he is, I have a tough time seeing him changing his vote. Never mind he was one of the few Liberals elected in rural Ontario, albeit barely so he might vote against SSM just to prevent his seat from falling to the Conservatives next time

Blaine Calkins and Rick Norlock are both former Alliance members from rural ridings, so I expect them to vote against SSM.

Luc Harvey, Jean-Pierre Blackburn, and Daniel Petit are from Quebec which is generally more socially liberal than the rest of Canada, so my guess is that at least 2 of them will support SSM.

Mike Wallace - I have no idea on since Burlington is a rather libertarian riding, fiscally conservative, but socially liberal, not to mention he comes from the former PCs, not the Alliance, and the former PCs were pretty much split down the middle on the issue. I suspect after losing to Paddy Torsney in 2004 when everybody expected the riding to go Conservative, he will be careful not to be too socially conservative. This area loved Mike Harris, but hated Stockwell Day.


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