Ignatieff is Sunk
Many have speculated that Stephen Harper's nation motion helps Ignatieff more than anybody. I can't disagree more.
Michael Ignatieff' s scenario for victory at the convention depended entirely on one thing - his appeal to the Quebec delegates of other candidates, particularly Dion, on the nation issue. With Dion and Rae, the other two Quebec contenders, both supporting Harper's motion, however, an Ignatieff victory is now all but impossible. None of the also-rans, except for Brison, will support him, and even Brison isn't guaranteed. Ignatieff somehow has to win 20% more support than he already has in order to win. But even with Brison's support, the numbers just aren't there.
As for scoring an endorsement from Rae, Kennedy or Dion, that is unlikely. Bob Rae is definitely not going to support him, and if Kennedy and Dion are smart, they'll agree to support each other, not Ignatieff, as they both need each other. Dion needs Kennedy to advance, and gain a valuable English-Canada ally, and Kennedy needs Dion to shore up his fatally weak Quebec numbers.
Ignatieff is toast.