Saturday, November 25, 2006

Ignatieff is Sunk

Many have speculated that Stephen Harper's nation motion helps Ignatieff more than anybody. I can't disagree more.

Michael Ignatieff' s scenario for victory at the convention depended entirely on one thing - his appeal to the Quebec delegates of other candidates, particularly Dion, on the nation issue. With Dion and Rae, the other two Quebec contenders, both supporting Harper's motion, however, an Ignatieff victory is now all but impossible. None of the also-rans, except for Brison, will support him, and even Brison isn't guaranteed. Ignatieff somehow has to win 20% more support than he already has in order to win. But even with Brison's support, the numbers just aren't there.

As for scoring an endorsement from Rae, Kennedy or Dion, that is unlikely. Bob Rae is definitely not going to support him, and if Kennedy and Dion are smart, they'll agree to support each other, not Ignatieff, as they both need each other. Dion needs Kennedy to advance, and gain a valuable English-Canada ally, and Kennedy needs Dion to shore up his fatally weak Quebec numbers.

Ignatieff is toast.

12 Comments:

At 11/25/2006 3:26 AM, Blogger Dan McKenzie said...

Why wouldn't Rae endorse Ignatieff?

 
At 11/25/2006 3:42 AM, Blogger Clear Grit said...

Oh; that Globe article isn't open for public access anymore. It was when I posted it.

The Globe article basically said that, according to both camps, there is no love lost between the two men, and report their friendship as being over.

 
At 11/25/2006 3:47 AM, Anonymous MississaugaPeter said...

I agree with Dan.

Don't write off Rae going over to Iggy.

A Globe article is just not enough proof that a three-plus decade friendship fizzled.

 
At 11/25/2006 8:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rae knows that Canadian Unity is and will always be one of the most difficult challenges for any PM to manage. Further, he knows by way of this leadership race, that Ignatieff is a reckless and divisive figure on the unity issue. Moreover, Rae genuinely respects Dion's skill, knowledge and achievements on Unity, as demonstrated by the Clarity Act, and Dion's recent influence on the Harper remedy.

I agree, the Ignatieff ship has sunk.

Rural Ontario Liberal at Murphy's Point

 
At 11/25/2006 11:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you Rae's wife? You sure seem to know how to read his mind Rural Ontario Liberal

Your scenario is only plausible if all the dropouts who rally around an "Anyone" but candidate can bring over at least 75% of their delegates (in numbers and in actual votes. Ie. Ive heard many Dion delegates say that if their candidate or Kennedy does not make into the final ballot, they will not bother voting for either Rae or Ignatieff)

This is a highly improbable scenario for a variety of obvious reasons..

 
At 11/25/2006 11:10 AM, Anonymous Vijay Sappani said...

Rae did not tell me that he will not support Iggy. So did Gerard. The only person who might not support Iggy is Volpe and even he will jump if he is promised a cabinet!!

In a open race like this, no one can say that Rae will to support Iggy or vice versa. Wait and watch. Three decades of friendship cannot be lost in 10 months of political differences.

 
At 11/25/2006 11:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"In a open race like this, no one can say that Rae will support Iggy or vice versa"

It will depend on John Rae and Chrétien’s marching orders to Bob. If Rae cannot become the anyone but candidate, my feeling is that the Chretienites will want to enter a camp that would maximize their influence. So it could be Dion that gets Rae’s endorsement.

Ignatieff ship has sunk

I would be a millionaire by now for every dollar I put down when I hear such humuorous statements.

 
At 11/25/2006 5:03 PM, Blogger Shan said...

He's definitely not 'sunk', Ignatieff is the one guy who seems to have well-distributed support. Dion can make a difference if he explains why constitutional recognition of Quebecois as a nation is pointless.

 
At 11/25/2006 10:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wish Iggy were "sunk", "toast", anything but "leader". But hes still got a good chance of winning.

 
At 11/26/2006 12:09 AM, Blogger Justin Tetreault said...

Iggy doesn't need anybody to endorse him, he just needs about 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 delegates to bleed to him when their 1st choice bows out. Look what happened with Bevilaqua, Bennett and Fry left the race, a good number of organizers and supporters joined Ignatieff's team.

 
At 11/26/2006 11:00 AM, Blogger ottlib said...

Iggy supported the nation resolution when was it was not "fashionable".

All of the rest came to the same conclusion only after Stephen Harper took away their ability to fudge.

You are dreaming if you believe Quebec delegates will not notice that very important distinction.

All of the folks running are politicians and they will not be burning any bridges so don't expect any of them to rule anyone out for their support.

Then there is still the fact that we are less than a week away from the convention and the anybody by Iggy forces are still scattered and disorganized. Mainly because they have not settled one candidate.

If such a situation still exists after the second ballot, Iggy wins.

 
At 11/27/2006 10:52 AM, Blogger CuriosityCat said...

The biggest AnyoneButIggy block are the voters.

 

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