Sunday, November 06, 2005

The Gregg Poll

Well, I'm sure you've all seen this already.

The numbers seem to favour the Conservatives only marginally, however, the poll numbers excluding Quebec tell a different story.

In order to have an accurate idea of what's going on, it's important to exclude Quebec from the equation - it's going to be Bloc territory in the next election, anyway. Any support the Liberals have in Quebec which boosts their national popular vote is pretty much moot. What really matters for them is being ahead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and at least respectable in the west, particularly BC.

Well, in Ontario, they're neck-and-neck, a painful scenario which would deliver a good chunk of seats to the Tories. As for the BC, they're no longer leading there.

That's definitely a recipe for a Liberal loss, if not a Tory gain.

So I guess my point is, this poll is even worse than it looks for the Liberals.


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