Saturday, May 06, 2006

Strategic strikes out again?

I'm not sure what methods the Strategic Counsel uses in gathering its polling data, but as I've mentioned before, they consistently have the Green Party several points up from what other polls say, and I really can't think of a reason why.

Take this poll, for example.
Conservatives - 35
Liberals - 31
NDP - 16
Bloc - 10
Green - 9

Now, it's a more encouraging poll for the Liberals than many have been recently, so I'm inclined to hype it, but the skeptic in me looks at the Green support and raises an eyebrow. These are the kinds of numbers the SC was putting out during the election, when the Greens pulled in barely above 4%. If more polls came out showing the Greens at that level of support (particularly a poll done by SES, which predicted the election results within 1% accuracy) then I'd buy it. But for now, I think this poll has to be viewed with some skepticism.


At 5/08/2006 12:32 a.m., Blogger Miles Lunn said...

Since most voters are undecided on how they will vote in the next election, the results in any poll will depend on how the question is asked. It is not until usually midway through a campaign that a firm trend emerges as people start to become more firmer in their intentions so their answer is less likely to vary depending on the question. It is good news, but I ignore all the polls for now. What until the Liberals have their new leader.


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