Friday, September 15, 2006

The Front-Runners

With Carolyn Bennett now endorsing Bob Rae, it would seem to me that the conventional wisdom amongst the media that Michael Ignatieff and Rae are the two front-runners is finally starting to seem a bit more credible. Rae has now had two endorsements from leadership drop-outs (Bennett and Maurizio Bevilacqua) and even if they don't bring a lot of followers his way, that still creates the perception of momentum, which as any strategist will tell you, is extremely important. People are more likely to jump on a band-wagon if others are doing the same.

I estimate that Ignatieff and Rae will be in the first and second slots respectively when it comes to delegate selection, followed by Dion, then Kennedy, Brison, and Dryden in that order. I predict that the numbers will reflect that Dion is the only other candidate who could possibly squeeze up the middle. I can't wait to find out whether or not I'm right.


At 9/15/2006 4:19 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think that Dion will have similar elected delegate numbers to Rae after the delegate elections. Mostly because he will get a lot in Quebec and BC.

So, the media can annoint front runners but the delegates will choose a leader.

Whatever Brison and Kennedy decide will mean a lot.

At 9/16/2006 3:23 p.m., Blogger Miles Lunn said...

I think Dryden also has a lot of room for growth, but I think he will be too far behind to come up the middle. Kennedy for whatever reason seems to have stalled in his campaign and isn't really inspiring people. While I don't think either Ignatieff or Rae have huge amounts of room for growth.

At 9/20/2006 4:12 a.m., Anonymous Anth said...

Across the country:
1. Ignatieff
2. Rae
3. Kennedy
4. Dion


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