Monday, January 23, 2006

Final Predictions

All the cool kids are doing it.

Newfoundland and Labrador:
Liberals - 5
Conservatives - 2

I'm going to call this one as sticking with the status quo. I don't see any huge shift happening in Newfoundland. Bonavista--Grand Falls--Gander may shift hands, but I'll say it won't. That's definitely one to watch, though. The other is Avalon, but again, I call it as staying Liberal. Hearn and Doyle will stay elected in St. John's.

Prince Edward Island:
Liberals - 4

A lot of hay has been made about a PEI seat going Tory for the first time since 1984, but I just don't see it it happening; the numbers just aren't there. This riding stays as red as its soil.

Nova Scotia:
Liberals - 5 (down 1)
Conservatives - 3
New Democrats - 3 (up 1)

I see Dartmouth--Cole Harbour switching back to the New Democrats, but we'll see... Mike Savage is a great MP and a strong candidate. I hope he keeps it, but I think the NDP has a better-than-good chance there. Kings--Hants stays Liberal, and Scott Brison is re-elected again, leaving the Tories to try (and fail) a third time to exact their revenge on him.

New Brunswick:
Liberals - 6 (down 1)
Conservatives - 3 (up 1)
New Democrats - 1

I'll say the Tories pick up a seat here, probably Saint John. The rest stays relatively static.

Quebec:
Bloc Quebecois - 58 (up 4)
Liberals - 12 (down 9)
Conservatives - 4 (up 4)
Independent - 1 (up 1)

I think the Conservative surge will actually do more to split the federalist vote, giving the Bloc some more seats. Pettigrew and Frulla are gone; Lapierre, regretably, stays. Independent Andre Arthur in Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier appears to be ahead in the polls, so I'll give it to him. He's a big name in Quebec. Josee Verner, Lawrence Cannon and Maxime Bernier are probably locks (and at least two of them headed for cabinet if Harper wins), and Jean-Pierre Blackburn in Jonquiere--Alma has sort of had the race conceded to him by Liberal Gilles Savard. The Liberals hold onto their safe seats, but that's about it. Martin keeps his seat - those predicting he'll lose it are out to lunch.

Ontario:
Conservatives - 54 (up 30)
Liberals - 40 (down 35)
New Democrats - 12 (up 5)

Ah, the home province.

I don't think Liberals are going to have much to look forward to in Ontario. The Tories are going to have a large number of pick-ups in Eastern and Southwestern Ontario, and even some in the GTA and Ottawa. Expect to see Tony Clement finally win something in Parry Sound--Muskoka, as well as future cabinet ministers Allan Cutler, John Baird and (ugh) Jim Flaherty. Toronto stays Liberal, including Etobicoke--Lakeshore (or so I hope), though Jack and Olivia win their seats, and possibly Parkdale--High Park shifts to the NDP as well. My riding of Peterborough, a microcosm of eastern Ontario and a perennial bellweather, will probably go Conservative, which is truly regretable, as the Tory here is... well... less than stellar. Newmarket--Aurora is a tough call, but I'll predict that Belinda hangs on. But there won't be much more good news than that for the Liberals here tomorrow.

There's a tonne of Liberal MPs who I would love to see go down in defeat, namely Andrew Telegdi, Tom Wappel, Dan McTeague, Paul Szabo, Walt Lastewka, Joe Comuzzi, Roy Cullen, John Cannis, Alan Tonks, Paul Steckle, and more. Unfortunately, most of the Liberal MPs I want to see defeated (pragmatically - I want to replace them in the next election with actual Liberals and not just L.I.N.O.'s who squat in safe Ontario seats; Pat O'Brien was a good start) are, as mentioned, in safe seats, so they will very unfortunately be a part of the next Liberal caucus.

Manitoba:
Conservatives - 7
Liberals - 4
New Democrats - 3

That may look like the status quo, but that's not it. Churchill goes to Liberal Tina Keeper, but the NDP picks up Selkirk--Interlake from the Tories. Meanwhile, the Tories steal one from the Liberals.

Saskatchewan:
Conservatives - 10 (down 3)
New Democrats - 3 (up 3)
Liberals - 1

That finance critic for the official opposition Ralph Goodale (oh dear, it feels weird saying that) hangs on is a given. I also think the NDP stands poised to regain some seats in 2006. Most notably, Lorne Nystrom (one of my favourite Dippers - I'm certainly rooting for him) will make a comeback in Regina--Qu'Appelle. I'll predict Palliser and Humboldt also swing to the NDP. The Tories hold the rest.

Alberta:
Liberals - 21 (up 19)
New Democrats - 6 (up 6)
Conservatives - 1 (down 25)

Hmm? Oh sorry, I was running a scenario in which Albertans, who love to complain that Ontario blindly votes for the same party all the time, actually took their own advice and changed their vote for once, voting for a NON-right-wing party for the first time in eighty years.

Alberta (the real one):
Conservatives - 28 (up 2)
Liberals - 0 (down 2)

Sorry guys, but Anne McLellan's toast. Maybe not, though - prove me wrong again, Annie; for the fifth time in a row prove all the predictions wrong!

British Columbia:
Conservatives - 20 (down 2)
New Democrats - 9 (up 4)
Liberals - 7 (down 1)
Independents - 0 (down 1)

I'll be honest, British Columbia is too volatile to call accurately, so I'm just making a crap-shoot here. I don't want to get into specific ridings too much, but I will say that Alex Atamanenko will take BC Southern Interior, and New Democrat Penny Priddy picks up the late Chuck Cadman's Surrey North seat. No Green breakthrough in British Columbia this time (though I would be happy to be proven wrong, and that goes for most of these predictions). I'll also give Vancouver Centre to Svend Robinson, though I don't know how accurate that will turn out to be.

The North:
Liberals - 2 (down 1)
New Democrats - 1 (up 1)

The Northwest Territories, the closest riding last time around, goes NDP, but the Yukon and Nunavut stay Liberal. Not much to say about this one.

The National Results:
Conservatives - 131 Seats (36% of the vote)
Liberals - 86 Seats (29% of the vote)
Bloc Quebecois - 58 Seats (11% of the vote)
New Democrats - 32 Seats (17% of the vote)
Independent - 1 Seat (0.x% of the vote)
Greens - 0 Seats (5% of the vote)


That's the way I'm calling it. If I were a betting man (and I am), that's what I'd bet on (which, incidentally, I actually am).

5 Comments:

At 1/23/2006 6:39 AM, Blogger Picard102 said...

What about Ken Boshcoff?
I predict He'll keep his seat by the slimmest of margins. Comuzzi too. Although the NDP are nipping at their heals.

I wouldn't discount those two losing their seats.

 
At 1/23/2006 7:52 AM, Blogger HisHighness said...

we are NOT going to lose Dartmouth to the God Damned Orange Menace.

 
At 1/23/2006 10:09 AM, Blogger Dan McKenzie said...

A poll indicated Ashton was going to win over Keeper, but I'm not giving up my hopes for her.

 
At 1/23/2006 11:02 AM, Blogger C.Young said...

I think the Atlantic numbers will be a surprise for a lot of people. There are a lot of seats in play here - many are just to close to call. From what I am hearing there will be fewer liberals in Ottawa from this part of the Country than you are predicting. The change factor is very strong here right now.

 
At 1/23/2006 5:27 PM, Blogger mAc Chaos said...

I'll just toss out that I think the numbers will be closer to 140 when all is said and done.

 

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