Can Iggy be Stopped?
He's got a quarter of the caucus, and according to Don Newman's politics, that's only the declared number. I'm not one of those Stop Iggy types - I happen to think he'd make a good leader and a great prime minister - but I do have to wonder whether any of the other candidates can still beat someone who has so much support, especially with heavyweights like Denis Coderre, Ruby Dhalla and John McCallum behind him, all three of whom were rumoured possible contenders themselves. Thus far, the following MPs are declared supporters of Ignatieff:
Mauril Bélanger, John Cannis, Denis Coderre, Rodger Cuzner, Jean-Claude D'Amours, Ruby Dhalla, Wayne Easter, Raymonde Folco, Albina Guarnieri, Susan Kadis, Derek Lee, John Maloney, John McCallum, Joe McGuire, John McKay, Stephen Owen, Jim Peterson, Marcel Proulx, Geoff Regan, Pablo Rodriguez, Raymond Simard, Paul Szabo, Robert Thibault, Roger Valley, Paul Zed.
That's pretty impressive, and more than all of the other candidates combined.
posted by Ryan Ringer @ 6/01/2006 07:16:00 p.m.
20 comments
20 Comments:
I don't think caucus support will necessarily translate into delegates. Iggy is short on ground workers compared to other candidates in some parts of the country.
Heavyweights like John McCallum??? come on you're not serious.
I say let's clean out the bottom of the tank and have a REAL race.
If there is an anybody but Ignatieff like there was for Gerard Kennedy in 1996, it certainly could happen. The race is still wide open. He may be the frontrunner, but it is far from guaranteed he will win.
Why are you so down on Iggy?
Is it because he's so conservative?
If its that, maybe I can understand why then.
Why would Canadians vote for a copy of Stephen Harper when they already have the real thing.
Actually Gimbol, there are a great number of old Progressive Conservatives in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes who may look at Dr. Ignatieff and think they can support him.
Many of them could not stomach Paul Martin but they do not really trust Stephen Harper. A right leaning Liberal could very well make them much more comfortable.
If that happens Stephen Harper is in big trouble because his base is not big enough to carry more than 70 seats.
Hey Ryan, dude, I just finished watching my Cheech and Chong video Up in Smoke again and thought I would cruise the LibLogs while waiting for my pizza. Here's a tip dude, you guys should really stop talking about getting all this Caucasian support because I think it might start pissing off the ethnic voters. Gotta go... pizza 's here.
It will be Kennedy and Iggy at the end. I think Gerard will take it.
The irony is Iggy is playing Gk circa '96 - he is pissing off an unbelievable number of grass root members with his "you're with us, or you're against us" attitude that David Smith is putting out. The ironic part is I think Gerard will play "Dalton" this time around and take it on the 4th ballot.
I may be wrong about Gerard but Iggy won't win - it is between Gerard, Rae or Dryden. Iggy will hit his peak at about 25-28% and NOBODY else will go to him.
Look at what's going on on the ground in Alberta, Saskatchewan and elsewhere...Iggy is pissing a lot of people off and unless he takes it on the first ballot (which is impossible) he won't win.
only if people rally around Kennedy and fast, its really beginning to happen in BC with Dion's campaign stalling so badly here. I'd say over 70% of undecided people making their decisions now are going to kennedy, 15% to Ignatieff, and 15 to others. It would be an ironic and cool twist of history for the victim of an Anybody-but-Kennedy movement in 1996 to be the beneficiary of an anybody-but-ignatieff movement ten years later
just checked back in here... and NO one has explained why John McCallum is considered a heavyweight!!
He might win but this is a long process and anything could happen. We could have an election in the fall the results of which could make many Liberals change whatever decision they made before hand. I believe the answer is Yes.
I definitely don't think this is a done situation -- I'm a Rae backer but have yet to hear Ignatieff speak. I was really impressed with what both Kennedy and Dion were saying, but am going with the candidate who demonstrated to me a complete understanding of as many issues as possible, with a breadth of experience that is unrivaled. He's also witty and capable of doffing the gloves in a bare-knuckle battle if that's what Harpor the cut-and-runner wants.
The majority of members in my riding are a long way from deciding. They are weighing a ton of options and waiting for everyone to make the rounds. Unfortunately I think the party goofed by making such a lengthy campaign with a short membership cut-off -- it would have been much better for an October cut-off, January convention. We needed as much time as possible to let all the characters to raise the cash... We should have given them up until now to start announcing.
I dont think Iggy will win. There are just too many Liberals already who take an "anyone but Iggy" attitude (I am one of them). He may have the most support (btw I would argue that causus support isnt THAT important) but you need the ability to get more than 50% to win. I dont see him getting that.
I actually think that Kennedy has a better chance because he is less offensive to people even if he isnt there first choice. I am encouraged by what anonymous @ 11:23 is saying.
I find Iggy's positions way to Conservative, and I just don't see the positives. I've heard him speak (not live), and not been impressed. I've read Virtual War and liked it, although I found some of the sentiments (sort of like: I, Iggy, stood on a hill outside of Srebenica and confronted history) a bit self-aggrandizing and flakey. He might make me return to the Dippers if he was leader, and I think the Tories would shell him like a peanut (Harper says: "I supported the Iraq war, but my positon on torture has always been clear).
So far I would have to say it's looking like it'll be Iggy vs. Kennedy. And out of people I talk to, either they're sold on Iggy (and try to sell you on him), or he's down at the 5-6 range on the list (after any ordering of Kennedy, Dion, Dryden, and one or 2 others). I don't see too many people switching over to his side unless if we get down to him against people like Rae or Volpe.
Le Soleil's Michel C. Auger has some damning things to say about the Liberal leadership race in today's paper.
I can't say I like your title.
I'm proud to support Iggy, but I think victory is far from certain.
most of the real activists in the party are not on Iggy's campaign.
Iggy just has the malcontents and the caucus members who thought they should have been in Chretien or Martin's cabinets.
His candidacy looks fine from the caucus room, but on the streets of Canada, it is preposterous. No other country would contemplate making someone who hasn't been part of our political dialogue for the last 30 years to come in and assume power.
Liberals, at the end of the day, just won't let this happen.
It will be Rae and Brison on the final ballot.
Iggy will stall at 35% after two ballots. Kennedy will never get over 25% as he has no (and I mean absolutely no) Quebec campaign.
Brison will be seen as the compromise candidate for Iggy supporters. Dion's people in BC like Brison alot and will swing to him. Brison will go into the convention with 50% support in the Atlantic (he has 80% of the Senators there working on the ground for him selling memberships). Brison's Quebec campaign is right behind Iggy's and Rae's and far ahead of Dryden's and Dion's (the only two other Quebec campaigns besides Volpe's whose wheels came off this week)
Rae or Brison.
It will be interesting at 4am.
anonymous,
Rae and Brison eh? That would certainly be interesting. I for one would love to see how that would play out. They're both great candidates.
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