Saturday, September 30, 2006

Early Results - Dion still 2nd!

I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched, but this news is very good for Dion. With Friday's delegate selection meetings held (and Saturday and Sunday's yet to come or coming in now), these are the results. (Finally, some hard numbers!)

1. Ignatieff - 27.6%
2. Dion - 18.5%
3. Rae - 18.1%
4. Kennedy - 14.3%
5. Brison - 7.5%
6. Dryden - 5.8%
7. Volpe - 3.8%
8. Hall Findlay - 1.8%
Undeclared - 2.7%

Granted, Dion is still nine points behind Ignatieff. And granted, Ignatieff's performance certainly meets expectations at this point. But Dion has thus far succeeded expectations - early on the campaign he was considered a middle player, a potential kingmaker and not much more. Now he is the runner-up behind Ignatieff, a position the media has been ascribing to Rae, and the bloggers have been ascribing to Kennedy. This means that Dion, again at least for the moment, is the most likely to be the recipient of the anyone-but-Iggy delegates - and there will be a lot of them.

I'll comment further later, but as it stands:

Ignatieff's lead is not unexpected.
Dion has exceeded expectations.
Rae remains a player.
Kennedy meets expectations, those of the media at least. Could still win, though it's less likely now.
Brison has about as expected - probably not enough to win, but he's got a long shot.
Dryden is toast. He's far from even meeting expectations.
Volpe is (mercifully) going to be a marginal force.
Hall Findlay won't be a player this time around.


At 9/30/2006 6:08 p.m., Blogger Penny said...

There are only two things about these stats that shock and appal me.

One is that the Villain Volpe has more support than Martha and

Two, that Volpe has not been dis-owned by the party. There must be some legal beagle reason that I'm unfamiliar with, but, feh!

It leaves a dirty taste in my mouth that his name is even on the ballot.

At 9/30/2006 6:16 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dion has slipped to third. He just got lucky with some early returns in ridings where he is strong.

Most disapointing for him are the results coming in from BC. He was supposed to lead there with his National Campaign Manager, Mark Marrissen in charge. Instaed he is behind both Rae and Kennedy and just a tad ahead of Iggy. This is the worst news for Dion so far.


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