Will Rae Take It?
What once seemed incredibly unlikely is now seeming increasingly likely. Not only is Rae the only candidate who rivals Ignatieff in popular support, he is also the only one picking up endorsements from drop-out candidates; Maurizio Bevilacqua, Carolyn Bennett, and now Hedy Fry. Also, if the numbers are correct, and Rae can expect the support of 25% of delegates on the first ballot, and then 27% consider him their second choice (as opposed to 17% for Ignatieff,) we could be looking at a Rae victory on the fourth or even third ballot.
I will say that I would prefer Rae over Ignatieff, but I'm still voting for Dion.
Either way, Super Weekend is fast approaching (only 5 days to go!) and after that we'll have a much clearer view of the battlefield, with hard numbers instead of polls and guesses (though there will inevitably and unavoidably still be a healthy amount of the latter.)
posted by Ryan Ringer @ 9/25/2006 04:29:00 p.m.
2 comments
2 Comments:
The problem here is the surveys are based on Liberal members in absolute numbers rather than an equal number from each riding. Each riding even those with few Liberal members elect the same amount of delegates. Rae's problem is he has little support in Atlantic Canada and the West. In fact Dion and Kennedy are quite strong in the West, while Brison is strong in Atlantic Canada and Dryden is strong in Manitoba and to a lesser degree in the other prairie provinces. In all likelihood, I wouldn't be surprised if Rae gets below 20% on the first ballot. Now he does have more room for growth than Ignatieff. How things will turn out is still anybody's guess.
I'm supporting Dryden. Dion is good, but he won't be able to lead the Liberals over the Conservatives. Quite frankly, his English is not good enough to appeal to folks out west, he's just "too French" as offensive as it sounds.
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