Saturday, September 30, 2006

Status Update: The Big Three

Kennedy's performance thus far (and it's only Saturday evening) has been disappointing, at best. At worst, it seals his loss. He is a full seven points behind Rae and Dion at this point, and seventeen points behind Ignatieff. At this rate, I think it's pretty fanciful for Kennedy supporters to expect that he will somehow pull through at the convention.

Unless his numbers change, that is.

As of now, here's the numbers as they stand:

1. Ignatieff - 29.7%
2. Rae - 19.9%
3. Dion - 19.3%
4. Kennedy - 12.4%
5. Brison - 5.9%
6. Dryden - 4.9%
7. Volpe - 3.9%
8. Hall Findlay - 1.5%
Undeclared - 2.4%

Status of the Candidates:

The Big Three: Ignatieff, Rae and Dion
It's pretty clear to me that the only three people who stand a realistic chance to win this convention are Ignatieff, Rae and Dion. I've felt as much for some time, but these numbers confirm it. (Again, unless Kennedy makes a breakthrough, in which case he could join this echelon.) Ignatieff and Rae have met expectations, with Rae surpassing Dion to take second place. Dion has exceeded expectations.

The Middle Power: Kennedy
Kennedy will become everybody's best friend very soon. As it's clear he's not going to win, he is going to be the first drop-off whose support could yield enough delegates to win. Kennedy is going to be very important at the convention, and whoever he endorses will probably win. Expect Rae and Dion especially to cozy up to him, since they're the two who would probably be the recipient of his delegates.

The Bit Players: Brison, Dryden and Volpe
Brison had a worse day today than yesterday. Yesterday I would have said he had a long shot of winning, but with more numbers in, it seems that he's likely not going to be a major player at the convention. Which is bad news for Ignatieff to be sure. As for Dryden, his performance has probably been the most disappointing of all. He can't have any realistic hope of victory after this weekend, and he was considered one of the big six at the beginning. Disappointing indeed. Volpe's support is lower than expected, but very few people are complaining about that.

And Also...: Martha Hall Findlay
No one gave Hall Findlay any serious odds of winning this convention - even Hall Findlay supporters. They all know they're running to boost Martha's image, get her into the cabinet, and make her a major player next time around.

6 Comments:

At 9/30/2006 7:34 p.m., Blogger Dan McKenzie said...

Kennedy will bounce back a bit. The only real numbers that have come in so far Saturday have been from Quebec, obviously not his stronghold.

 
At 9/30/2006 7:52 p.m., Blogger aginsberg said...

How you can come to any conclusions with Ontario basically unreported is beyond me. Yes, Kennedy has done miserably in Quebec, but this race will be decided by more than Quebec.

 
At 10/01/2006 12:36 a.m., Blogger Devon said...

Wow you were totally right in your estimates! Kennedy is totally hopeless, he's only rised higher well Dion fell.

 
At 10/01/2006 1:03 a.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

It looks like Kennedy is going to overtake Dion. You starting throwing your mud in the wrong direction!

 
At 10/01/2006 2:35 a.m., Anonymous MississaugaPeter said...

Clear Grit,

This afternoon, if you had taken out Quebec's numbers from the national numbers you would have realized that Gerard was second outside Quebec.

Considering almost 1/3 of the meetings reported were from Quebec, you should have realized that the numbers were skewed not in Gerard's favour.

At 2:25 a.m., Sunday morning, Gerard is now within 24 votes of your candidate, Dion.

Nevertheless, Dion, Rae, and Gerard have done well today.

 
At 10/03/2006 10:18 a.m., Anonymous MrJamieson said...

PTBO Results

Gerrard Kennedy 57% 8 delegates

Martha Hall Findlay 15% 2 delegates

Michael Ignatieff 11% 2 delegates

Bob Rae 9 % 1 delegate

St├ęphane Dion 4% 1 delegate

Ken Dryden 3% 0
Scott Bryson 1% 0
Joe Volpe 0 0

 

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