What if Michael Ignatieff is knocked off the ballot before the final ballot? Where will his supporters go? From what people have been telling me, it seems likely that a lot of them will just go home, especially if the final ballot happened to be between Rae and Kennedy. There's not good feelings between the Rae/Kennedy and Ignatieff camps.
There's also not good feelings between the Kennedy and Rae camps, either. During Rae and Ignatieff's speeches, the Kennedy section of the audience was stone cold. They were just not impressed at all. I think this bodes well for Dion, not so well for Rae and Ignatieff.
If the final ballot is between Dion and Rae, I think Dion will walk away with it hands down.
If there were a way to prove it, I'd bet you anything that Dion and Kennedy already have a deal. Everyone on both sides seems to agree that it just makes sense. The general feeling seems to be, at least among delegates, that Kennedy's will go to Dion, and vice versa, if their first choice is knocked off.
Dion or Kennedy is going to win this. Maybe that's wishful thinking, but I think not.