Saturday, December 02, 2006

Ignatieff is sunk (Part 2)

I figured Ignatieff would need at least 32-34% on the first ballot to win. He's got less than 30%. The ex officios he was hoping to break for him seem to have broken for Dion, instead. So... Ignatieff is toast. In fact, I'm not even sure he'll be on the final ballot anymore. A popular (although minority) theory among delegates seems to be that the final ballot will be between Dion and Rae. Wouldn't that be excitingly unexpected?

2 Comments:

At 12/02/2006 6:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The votes cast are about 800 fewer than registered delegates (according to registration numbers reported by CTV). The percentages (eliminating undecideds from the DEMs) haven't moved by more than .02%.

CYV reports that weather kept a lot of delegates from voting.

My guess is that many ex officio and a few other delegates akipped the first ballot knowing, that it was only a rehersal.

 
At 12/02/2006 9:24 AM, Blogger Clear Grit said...

If that's the case, it's one of the worst decisions they could have made, since momentum, or at least the perception of it, is crucial.

 

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