Ignatieff is sunk (Part 2)
I figured Ignatieff would need at least 32-34% on the first ballot to win. He's got less than 30%. The ex officios he was hoping to break for him seem to have broken for Dion, instead. So... Ignatieff is toast. In fact, I'm not even sure he'll be on the final ballot anymore. A popular (although minority) theory among delegates seems to be that the final ballot will be between Dion and Rae. Wouldn't that be excitingly unexpected?